Wade Payne/Associated Press
Alabama owns a seven-game winning streak in the rivalry with LSU, winning those games by an average score of 23-10 and going 5-2 against the spread along the way. In a really big game in the SEC West the Crimson Tide rolls with the Tigers on Saturday night in Baton Rouge.
College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 14-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 48.2-26.0 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread
The defending national champions reached 8-0 on the season with a 58-21 trouncing of Tennessee two weeks ago. Alabama then enjoyed last week off.
The Tide scored touchdowns on their first four possessions against the Volunteers, led 28-0 after the first quarter and cruise-controlled on their way to the easy victory and cover as 29-point favorites.
On the day Alabama held a 30-13 advantage in first downs, out-gained Tennessee 545-258 and out-rushed the Vols 218-31. The Tide has now out-gained every opponent this season by at least 131 yards, and their last three SEC foes by an average of 291 yards.
Alabama, known for so long for its great defenses, also now leads all of FBS in scoring this season at 54 points per game.
Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread
The Bayou Bengals reached 7-1 on the season and sneaked into the Top Four in the polls with a 19-3 victory over Mississippi State two weeks ago. They then also enjoyed last week off.
LSU took advantage of an early takeaway to take a 7-0 lead on the Bulldogs and led 10-3 at the half before kicking field goals on its first three possessions of the second half on its way to the win and the cash as a six-point favorite.
On the night LSU allowed just 260 yards of MSU offense and won the turnover battle 4-1. The Tigers also got a 4-of-4 field-goal performance from kicker Cole Tracy, who’s now 21-of-23 on field goals this season.
Three weeks ago LSU knocked off another national championship contender, beating Georgia 36-16.
Smart betting pick
Alabama won this matchup last year 24-10, and this week’s meeting should play out along similar lines. Yes, the Tigers are improved, but the Tide are even better as well. Also, Alabama is 2-1 ATS this season on the road, where spreads are generally friendlier, and 9-5 ATS over its last 14 true road games. Smart money gives the points here with the Tide.
College football betting trends
The total has gone under in six of Alabama’s last eight games vs. LSU.
Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road vs. teams with winning records.
The total has gone under in five of Alabama’s last six games on the road in November.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.