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Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds, line: 2018 college football picks, predictions from model on 7-3 roll

Mississippi State is next up for the daunting task of trying to defeat No. 1 Alabama. The Bulldogs get their shot this week when they travel to Tuscaloosa on Saturday for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS. Alabama ran its record to 9-0 with a 29-0 thumping of LSU last time out, while Mississippi State battered Louisiana Tech 45-3. The Crimson Tide opened as 24-point favorites and are now laying 23.5, while the over-under has inched up from 51.5 to 53 in the latest Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds. Before you make any Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The advanced computer model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. In the past three years, this proprietary model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors.

The model made some huge calls in Week 10, including the biggest game of the season, recommending the Crimson Tide against the spread (-14), on the money line (-588) and hitting the under in Alabama’s destruction of LSU. It also nailed its top-rated selection on Auburn (-3.5) over Texas A&M, helping the model finish the weekend on a strong 7-3 run on all top-rated picks. 

Now, the model has crunched the numbers for Alabama vs. Mississippi State. We can tell you it’s leaning under, but it has also generated a strong point-spread pick that hits in more than 60 percent of simulations. That pick is only available at SportsLine.

The model has factored in that Alabama’s offense runs through quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Heisman Trophy contender is a little banged up, but has been nothing short of brilliant all season. He has completed 68 percent of his passes for over 2,300 yards and 27 touchdowns — with just one interception. He also has racked up 172 rushing yards and run in three more scores. His top two receivers, Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle, are deep threats who are gouging defenses for 20-plus yards per catch.

The Crimson Tide also employ a ground game that nets 5.5 yards per carry. Behind one of the most imposing offensive lines in college football, the one-two backfield punch of Najee Harris, who’s nursing a mild ankle sprain, and Damien Harris creates headaches for opposing front sevens. Najee Harris averages 6.8 yards per carry and leads Bama in rushing yardage with 572.

But just because the Crimson Tide are rolling doesn’t mean they’ll cover a huge number against the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is a nightmare for opposing defenses. He has thrown for 1,252 yards and 10 touchdowns while rushing for another 839 and nine scores. The 6-foot-5 senior threw for 243 yards and four touchdowns against Louisiana Tech and ran for another 107 yards.

Running back Kylin Hill averages 6.6 yards per carry for a Bulldogs team averaging a whopping 231 rushing yards per game.

The Bulldogs have lost three games this season, but would have covered Saturday’s 23.5-point spread in each game. They also beat then-No. 16 Texas A&M by 15 two weeks ago.

Who wins Mississippi State vs. Alabama? And which side covers in more than 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Saturday’s SEC showdown you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that’s up more than $4,200 over the past three years.

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